PowerPlay · Market Brief
New England · September 7, 2026
The do-nothing price
The next reset lands February 1.
National Grid15.57¢through Jan 31
Eversource (Eastern MA)16.76¢through Jan 31

Their numbers, from their own filings - not ours.

Send us a recent bill - we price your exact usage against the reset before it lands.

Spread: a fixed contract competes with the current defaults (15.6-16.8¢) until the next filing lands.

Level: today's gas ranks 45th of every day since 2010 - mid-range of its own history.

Timing: 30-day average ranks 41st of the trailing year - no dip worth waiting for.

Full charts in the deeper market below.

The do-nothing benchmark

What the utility will charge if you do nothing

Basic service is the default rate from your utility, in cents per kWh. It resets February 1. These are the utility's own published filings.

Utility and classThrough Jan 31Next periodTheir January price
National Grid Commercial15.6¢n/a24.8¢
Eversource Small C&I16.8¢n/a25.6¢

A fixed supply contract signed today competes against these published rates, not against today's. Ask us to run your number.

DPU-approved basic service rates. Medium and large accounts reset quarterly; ask for your rate class. Sources: National Grid tariff M.D.P.U. No. 1-26-G; Eversource Eastern MA rate schedule. Retrieved September 1, 2026.

Spot market · trailing 12 months

Half of last year's energy cost arrived in three winter months

Monthly wholesale energy cost for a business using 500,000 kWh/year. The dashed line is the same month under a fixed contract at today's forward price.

$36,867
Riding the market, past 12 months
$32,747
Locked at today's forward price
50%
Of the year's cost fell in Dec to Feb

Wholesale energy component only. Delivery charges and supplier margin come on top.

The deeper market - the timing verdict, the evidence charts, and the long history
The timing verdict
Fair market. No timing edge - your renewal date decides.

The driver signal sits in the middle of its one-year range. Get a baseline priced now; we watch daily and flag the next real dip.

41st today - down from 70th Jul 24 - down from 53rd a month ago

This week's read. The driver signal is at the 41st percentile of the past year. The timing rule reads neutral.

Verdict evidence

The 30-day average of the wholesale day-ahead power price over the past year - the dot is today, ranked against every day shown.

Timing driver, trailing yearWINTEREXPENSIVEabove 8.7¢CHEAPbelow 4.4¢12¢16¢20¢Sep '25DecMarJunSep '26year ago · 4.3¢Today · 41st

30-day average day-ahead power price - a wholesale series recorded in $/MWh, shown here in cents per kWh · 365 observations ending September 6, 2026. Today reads 4.9¢ against 4.3¢ a year ago. Zones are drawn from the same window of data the percentile is ranked against.

Forward market · next 24 months

Winter is what a fixed rate insures you against

What the market charges today to deliver gas in each of the next 24 months - the same curve suppliers build fixed rates from. Shaded months are winter. The second winter is priced above the first.

$3.0$3.5$4.0$4.512-mo strip $3.16Oct $2.98Jan '27 · $3.90Jan '28 · $4.63Oct '26Jan '27Apr '27Jul '27Oct '27Jan '28Apr '28Jul '28

NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas monthly settlements as of September 7, 2026 - Yahoo Finance approximation when official CME settlements are unavailable. A year ago the market priced this January at $4.73; today $3.90. The curve is the cost of locking each month in today, not a forecast of where spot prices will land.

The long view

The fuel behind the price: New England makes half to two-thirds (38% at the last ISO New England reading) of its electricity by burning natural gas, so power rates follow this line. 16 years of it - every spike is a winter or a war, and the quiet stretches near the floor are when fixed rates are won.

natural gas, weekly averageproducers’ floorprice shockstoday
Natural gas, the long viewPRODUCERS’ FLOORunder $2.85$5$1020132016201920222025polar vortex '14$8Uri '21$24Ukraine '22$10this January$31today · $2.90

Henry Hub natural-gas spot price - the U.S. benchmark - in dollars per million BTU, weekly averages of EIA daily data, July 2010 through September 4, 2026. Gas-fired plants generate roughly half of New England’s electricity, so the price of gas steers the price of power here; the region pays above this benchmark in winter, when pipeline capacity binds. Producers curtail output below roughly $1.80-2.85, which makes sustained prices under the floor rare. Today reads $2.90; the weekly line spans $1.40-13.79, and the bold figures on each shock are single-day peaks - single days run higher than weekly averages show. Live fuel mix: ISO New England, read 2026-09-07 12:30.

Where do you stand
Contract ends within 6 months

You're in the window now.

Get supplier quotes priced this week.

Contract ends in 6 to 18 months

Get a baseline, then wait for the dip.

Price your load now so you have a real benchmark.

On utility default service

You're floating into winter.

The one position to review before November.

The data behind this brief
SignalLevelAs ofPctilevs 126d MAvs 252d MAStatus

Sources: ISO New England web services, EIA Henry Hub spot and Lower 48 storage, NYMEX gas futures via Yahoo Finance (approximation when official CME settlements are unavailable). Timing rule: at or below the 25th percentile reads favorable, 25th to 75th neutral, 75th and above unfavorable. All prices in this table are live. The percentile and trend columns compare today's value against daily history; for the forward strips that history is being collected one settlement per weekday (started July 8, 2026), so those columns switch on around the date shown in the cell. Monthly costs assume flat usage of 41,667 kWh/month.