PowerPlay Market Brief

PowerPlay · Market Brief

New England · July 12, 2026

Is this a good week to lock in an energy rate?

Fair value. Get priced, be ready to strike.

The driver signal sits in the middle of its one-year range. Get supplier quotes on the table now, then move when the market drops into the favorable zone.

Buyer's market · lockFair marketSeller's market · wait if you can

This week ranks 59th of 100 vs. the past year. Wholesale energy behind a 12-month fixed contract: about 6.6¢/kWh today. National Grid commercial default service is filed at 15.6¢/kWh for Aug-Jan.

This week's read. The driver signal is at the 59th percentile of the past year. The timing rule reads neutral.

Spot market · trailing 12 months

Half of last year's energy cost arrived in three winter months

Monthly wholesale energy cost for a business using 500,000 kWh/year. The dashed line is the same month under a fixed contract at today's forward price.

$36,729

Riding the market, past 12 months

$33,136

Locked at today's forward price

50%

Of the year's cost fell in Dec to Feb

Wholesale energy component only. Delivery charges and supplier margin come on top.

Forward market · next 24 months

Winter is what a fixed rate insures you against

What the market charges today for energy delivered in each of the next 24 months. Shaded bands are winter. The second winter is priced above the first.

The do-nothing benchmark

What the utility will charge if you do nothing

Basic service is the default rate from your utility, in cents per kWh. It resets August 1. These are the utility's own published filings.

Utility and class	Through Jul 31	Aug 1 to Jan 31*	Their January price
National Grid Commercial	14.5¢	15.6¢*	24.8¢*
Eversource Small C&I	15.0¢	16.8¢*	n/a

A fixed supply contract signed today competes against these published rates, not against today's. Ask us to run your number.

*Filed with the Massachusetts DPU, pending approval. Medium and large accounts reset quarterly; ask for your rate class. Sources: National Grid tariff M.D.P.U. No. 1-26-G; Eversource Eastern MA rate schedule. Retrieved July 9, 2026.

Where do you stand

Contract ends within 6 months

You're in the window now.

Get supplier quotes priced this week.

Contract ends in 6 to 18 months

Get a baseline, then wait for the dip.

Price your load now so you have a real benchmark.

On utility default service

You're floating into winter.

The one position to review before November.

The data behind this brief

Signal	Level	As of	Pctile	vs 126d MA	vs 252d MA	Status

Sources: ISO New England web services, EIA Henry Hub spot and Lower 48 storage, NYMEX gas futures via Yahoo Finance (approximation when official CME settlements are unavailable). Timing rule: at or below the 25th percentile reads favorable, 25th to 75th neutral, 75th and above unfavorable. All prices in this table are live. The percentile and trend columns compare today's value against daily history; for the forward strips that history is being collected one settlement per weekday (started July 8, 2026), so those columns switch on around the date shown in the cell. Monthly costs assume flat usage of 41,667 kWh/month. Latest pulls: yahoo_backfill OK 12033 rows; cme FAILED 0 rows; cme PARTIAL 0 rows; yahoo_front_month OK 755 rows; eia_storage_fallback OK 1 rows; eia_storage OK 312 rows.